Analysts are warning of growing risks to the market's sustained momentum, and even to the possibility of consolidation at current levels. Domestically, markets are grappling with several challenges, including a slowing economy, as indicated by the latest GDP data for the July-September (Q2) quarter of 2024-25 (FY25), sticky inflation, fluctuations in the rupee, waning consumption, and high interest rates.
The Indian market remains an attractive place to do business for the nation's entrepreneurs, with 75 per cent of them operating domestically.
'On the weekly chart, the Nifty 50 index has formed a bearish candle and remains below all short-term moving averages.'
Among the new entries, the largest by market capitalisation are LIC, Avenue Supermarts (DMart), Adani Green Energy, Zomato and Jio Financial Services.
The outcome of Maharashtra state elections is unlikely to move markets much, said analysts. The markets, they believe, have bigger developments to worry about in the short-to-medium term.
The sharp pullback in mid and smallcap stocks signals a cooling-off period in segments that previously attracted considerable investor interest.
Retail investors have become a force to reckon with in the last 10 years with their ownership of Indian equities rising 800 basis points, or 8 per cent, to 23.4 per cent during this period, suggests a recent note from Morgan Stanley. This number, Morgan Stanley said, is set to rise in the next few years as Indian households are still underinvested in equities. India's demographics, policy framework, investor education and modest positive real rates, it said, will fuel the 'equity cult' in India.
China has stayed on top for two consecutive months in the MSCI Emerging Markets Investable Market Index (EM IMI), after ceding the position to India in August. At the end of October, China's weight in the key EM gauge stood at 24.72 per cent, up from 21.58 per cent at the end of August. India's weight during this period has slipped to 20.42 per cent from 22.27 per cent.
'Investors looking at the next 6-12 months can be certain that the Fed will maintain its easing cycle, and we expect the overall environment to be conducive for fixed income investments for portfolio diversification.'
If technical analysts are to be believed, the index has more room for a slide down to 72,000 levels in the worst-case scenario, wiping out all the gains made in 2024 so far.
On the cusp of launching its Rs 11,327 crore initial public offering (IPO) next week, food and grocery delivery major Swiggy believes quick commerce to be its future growth engine and anticipates that it will outpace its core food delivery business over the next five years. Currently, the quick commerce business of Swiggy - backed by Prosus and SoftBank - is 40 per cent of the size of its food delivery revenues.
After a strong run in the midcap and smallcap indices, which surged 46 per cent and 43 per cent, respectively, on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) during Samvat 2080, analysts suggest that the rally in these segments may pause to catch its breath in Samvat 2081.
Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have infused a record Rs 4.6 trillion into Indian equities over the course of Samvat 2080, marking the highest net annual investment in any Samvat to date. This robust domestic inflow has effectively counterbalanced the comparatively subdued investments from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), who contributed a net Rs 90,956 crore within the same timeframe. Against this backdrop, the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex indices are on track to achieve their best performance in three Samvat years, despite recent market corrections.
If the index is unable to sustain above 24,500 levels, technically it can then slip to its 200-DMA placed at 23,365 levels.
The rally in Indian mid-and smallcap indices thus far in calendar year 2024 (CY24) has been the best in class across the world, eclipsing the global FTSE benchmarks, and also out running peers from other leading world stock markets. This is despite the correction in the mid-and smallcap segments back home seen in the last few days, triggered by valuation concerns, geopolitical developments amid nervousness ahead of the July - September 2024 (Q2-FY25) corporate results season.
'Higher interest rates make gold less attractive as it doesn't generate yield.' 'However, with rates set to fall, the tables are turning for gold.'
Crude oil prices could dip to the low $60s by the end of 2025 after rising to $80 a barrel in the last quarter (October-December) of 2024 - up nearly 10 per cent from current levels, suggest analysts at JP Morgan. The main players in West Asia, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have a strong incentive to keep the conflict contained, according to the JP Morgan report.
'The biggest near-term risk to Indian equities is the outflow of investments to China as tactical trades by foreign investors.'
Hyundai Motor India Limited's (HMIL's) record Rs 27,870 crore initial public offering (IPO) may not have set the primary market alight with sky-high subscription levels, but it has spelled a windfall for the five investment banks steering the share sale. The Indian arm of the South Korean carmaker paid Rs 493 crore - 1.77 per cent of the issue size - in fees and commissions to the book running lead managers (BRLMs), marking the largest-ever payout for an IPO in the country.
'Invest only in stocks of those companies that deliver on earnings and there is earnings visibility too for the next few quarters.'
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